The pending ban on TikTok in the U.S. on January 19th could impact our Industry. This Insight outlines potential immediate and secondary implications for landlords of TikTok and its U.S. affiliates, as well as landlords of TikTok partners such as the warehouse operators and logistics companies who fulfill orders on TikTok’s e-commerce platform.

Pending TikTok Ban and the Impact on Our Industry

We were curious about the credit of a company like Sirius after it announced it acquired content from podcaster and influencer Alex Cooper, who runs the Call Her Daddy podcast and the Unwell Network. Ms. Cooper stands to earn up to $125 million, according to media reports, if all performance clauses are met on her contract. It appears that Sirius is using Ms. Cooper to draw in new subscribers to reverse attrition in its user base since the pandemic’s onset. We invite you to read the report below for a full picture of Sirius’s credit profile.

Sirius XM, TRA Report

In preparation for the election on November 5th, we analyzed both candidates’ platforms and how they would likely impact our industry. Elections and economic strategies are of course incredibly complex, so we identified and focused on four key policy initiatives which we feel are the most significant.We weighed these plans with macroeconomic indicators and historical precedents and concluded that 

both candidates’ fiscal positions are likely to create a more challenging environment for commercial real estate

.Why? Because both campaigns’ policies, if enacted, could lead to more inflation, higher for longer interest rates, and stress for both commercial real estate owners and their tenants.

The 2024 U.S. Presidential Election and the Potential Impacts on Commercial Real Estate 

The U.S. Fed committee members broadly anticipate monetary easing to continue through 2026, whereby the consensus is a stabilized long-term federal funds rate of 2.875%. This is good news for any borrower with floating rate debt, but unfortunately, not all interest rates are equal. Read on to understand first, what the federal funds rate outlook means for different types of borrowers, and second, what the prospect of further rate cuts may mean for landlords and their tenants over the next few years.

Speculative Grade Tenants still at Risk Despite Monetary Easing

Today, Tenant Risk Assessment (TRA) unveiled a new brand identity and website, designed by Collect NEW YORK.

Tenant Risk Assessment Launches New Website, Brand Identity

Health Systems are are not immune from the same forces impacting much of the broader economy, and are more challenged today than they were five years ago. Inflation and interest rates are a consistent theme across all three examples outlined in the article below, as well as with many other hospital systems across the country. Rising costs of medical supplies cut into margins. So did rising labor costs. Net patient revenue fell for many health systems in the beginning, and while net patient revenue, which is the revenue a hospital collects net of any discounts to payers, has come back for most systems, some continue to struggle under the weight of rising costs.

Medical Office Outlook, Bifurcated Market Could Drive CRE Transaction Volume

The Midtown Manhattan property at 1740 Broadway, made news in May 2024 because the AAA tranche of the commercial mortgage-backed security (CMBS) incurred at 26% haircut following the sale of the building. Media outlets took note of this, and we at TRA have received questions about what happened.

While TRA is not party to this transaction or the tenants involved, after reviewing the events precipitating the haircut, we have pieced together why the credit rating remained AAA despite signs that recovery of the full value was in doubt.

What to Make of Single Asset CMBS Credit Ratings amid Defaults

Payment in kind is a bit euphemistic, in that there really is not much payment, and when there is, it usually isn’t very kind. Since the rapid hike in rates, we at TRA have seen an increase in commercial tenants that come with some additional baggage, something called a Payment in Kind note, also called a PIK note or PIK loan. Before we go too far unpacking this baggage, let’s take a minute to discuss at a high level just what a PIK loan is and why tenants may seek them.

Private Credit and the Rise of PIK Loans 

As part of our ongoing efforts to share anecdotes on corporate credit - and because this Sunday is the Oscars - TRA is publishing a report on Netflix (NFLX).


Netflix TRA Expanded Report

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) is dominating the headlines, and for good reason. The technology is very exciting and impresses the notion that as a society, we are approaching a pivot point that could be truly transformational. 

Artifical Intelligence Creditworthiness

WeWork reported $680M in liquidity as of June 30, 2023, and while its free cash flow burn rate is slowing, it is still too high, leaving the company with about six to seven months of cash on hand if it can’t raise or preserve capital.

WeWork  Outlook 2023

Many of TRA’s clients have privately expressed frustration at large publicly traded and private equity backed tenants noting that these tenants put a space up for sublease but do not actively seek to fill that space. These companies continue paying the landlord the contract rent for the duration of the lease, so economically in the short-term, there is no impact to the landlord, but long-term it leaves landlords without a lead on a new direct tenant and could result in greater inventory hitting the market in the coming years.

Pending TikTok Ban and the Impact on Our Industry

The Hershey Company, TRA Report

Credit Outlook: Rivian

Whole Business Securitization

DraftKings TRA Expanded Report