TRA Macro Tracking Index
Current Outlook
The market was excited for old news today. Inflation only rose 2.8% in September, compared with 2.9% in August. But this we already knew with the CPI data that the government released back in October to ensure Social Security payments got their CPI adjustments for Q3. Yields rose as investors saw the probability of a rate cut higher as a result, though this pop in yields is likely only temporary.
Consumer sentiment is mostly flat (a modest improvement) in early December, according to the University of Michigan Index.
Stay tuned for more insights next week.
| Variable + Date | Value | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Indicators as of December 5, 2025 | ||
| 10 Year Yields1 | 4.129 | ↑ Up |
| U.S. Dollar Index2 | 99.03 | ↑ Up |
| Consumer Confidence as of December 5, 2025 | ||
| MSCI3 | 53.3 | ↑ Up |
| Conference Board4 | 88.7 | ↓ Down |
| GDP as of December 4, 2025 | ||
| GDPNow5 | 3.8 | ↓ Down |
| Unemployment as of November 20, 2025 | ||
| Unemployment6 | 4.4% | ↑ Up |
| Inflation as of December 5, 2025 | ||
| Core PCE7 | 2.80% | ↓ Down |
| Containerized Freight Index as of November 13, 2025 | ||
| TSI8 | 136.2 | ↓ Down |