TRA Macro Tracking Index
Current Outlook
Lots of troubling signs in the credit markets today. Yields are up, the dollar is down, and the Fed Chair nominee is in the hot seat today for his confirmation hearing. Kevin Warsh has so far said he has no plans to be a "sock puppet" of the administration, but the President is pushing him hard for lower rates on day one. Inflation remains an issue, as does economic growth below inflation.
Oh, and the peace talks in Iran are maybe not happening. So more supply disruption and reordering, appears to be on the table.
Stay tune for more updates as the week progresses.
| Variable + Date | Value | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Indicators as of April 21, 2026 | ||
| 10 Year Yields1 | 4.296 | ↑ Up |
| U.S. Dollar Index2 | 98.454 | ↓ Down |
| Consumer Confidence as of April 10, 2026 | ||
| MSCI3 | 47.6 | ↓ Down |
| Conference Board4 | 91.2 | ↑ Up |
| GDP as of April 21, 2026 | ||
| GDPNow5 | 1.2% | ↓ Down |
| Unemployment as of April 3, 2026 | ||
| Unemployment6 | 4.3% | ↓ Down |
| Inflation as of April 9, 2026 | ||
| Core PCE7 | 3.0% | ↓ Down |
| Containerized Freight Index as of April 1, 2026 | ||
| TSI8 | 136.4 | ↓ Down |