TRA Macro Tracking Index
Current Outlook
In the absence of more government data, credit markets are continuing to flash red. 10 year yields continue their upward movement, and the November inflation report (CPI) is coming out just before the start of the Holiday season. Seems like affordability will be something we talk about until at least December 18, when the November CPI figures will be published.
Fed meets this week, with an expectation that the Fed will cut its benchmark rate. Doesn't look like that will do much to cool longer-term bond yields.
Stay tuned.
| Variable + Date | Value | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Indicators as of December 9, 2025 | ||
| 10 Year Yields1 | 4.178 | ↑ Up |
| U.S. Dollar Index2 | 99.15 | → Flat |
| Consumer Confidence as of December 5, 2025 | ||
| MSCI3 | 53.3 | ↑ Up |
| Conference Board4 | 88.7 | ↓ Down |
| GDP as of December 8, 2025 | ||
| GDPNow5 | 3.5 | ↓ Down |
| Unemployment as of November 20, 2025 | ||
| Unemployment6 | 4.4% | ↑ Up |
| Inflation as of December 5, 2025 | ||
| Core PCE7 | 2.80% | ↓ Down |
| Containerized Freight Index as of November 13, 2025 | ||
| TSI8 | 136.2 | ↓ Down |