TRA Macro Tracking Index
Current Outlook
Inflation seems to be cooling (at least according to the Fed's new PCE formula), and the market is not looking at tomorrow's labor market drop with material angst, which have driven yields and the dollar higher. Ongoing risks with oil persist, and sovereign debt continues to rear its head.
Stay tuned and Happy October!
| Variable + Date | Value | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Indicators as of October 1, 2026 | ||
| 10 Year Yields1 | 5.302 | ↑ Up |
| U.S. Dollar Index2 | 101.891 | ↑ Up |
| Consumer Confidence as of September 30, 2026 | ||
| MSCI3 | 48.1 | → Flat |
| Conference Board4 | 81.9 | ↓ Down |
| GDP as of October 1, 2026 | ||
| GDPNow5 | 3.7 | ↓ Down |
| Unemployment as of September 4, 2026 | ||
| Unemployment6 | 4.1% | → Flat |
| Inflation as of September 30, 2026 | ||
| Core PCE7 | 3.3% | → Flat |
| Containerized Freight Index as of September 1, 2026 | ||
| TSI8 | 134.9 | ↓ Down |