TRA Macro Tracking Index

Current Outlook

The U.S. economy added 162 thousand new jobs, a shock to the upside, in August, sending yields and the dollar higher and all be eliminating the prospect of a rate cut in September. Expect more conflict now between the Fed and the Administration on rate and trade policies, and slower macro growth for the foreseeable future. Of note is that the Bureau of Labor Statistics also revised up trailing three month numbers on the labor market.

Have a great long weekend, and catch up again next week with us!

Variable + DateValueDirection
Macro Indicators as of September 4, 2026
10 Year Yields14.774↑ Up
U.S. Dollar Index299.09↑ Up
Consumer Confidence as of August 28, 2026
MSCI351.7↑ Up
Conference Board489.4↓ Down
GDP as of August 26, 2026
GDPNow54.6%↑ Up
Unemployment as of September 4, 2026
Unemployment64.1%→ Flat
Inflation as of August 26, 2026
Core PCE73.3%→ Flat
Containerized Freight Index as of September 1, 2026
TSI8134.9↓ Down