TRA Macro Tracking Index
Current Outlook
Unemployment came down, but the headline story is more around people removing themselves from the labor market rather than employment levels picking up. The U.S. labor market saw a modest 57 thousand jobs added in June, with a total of 720 thousand workers leaving the labor force entirely. April and May jobs data was also revised downward, signaling more strain in the labor market. Yields and the dollar edged ever so slightly down on the news, which maybe offers a slight cooling of interest rate pressure.
Stay tuned for more updates as they come heading into the holiday weekend!
| Variable + Date | Value | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Indicators as of July 2, 2026 | ||
| 10 Year Yields1 | 4.457 | → Flat |
| U.S. Dollar Index2 | 100.76 | ↓ Down |
| Consumer Confidence as of June 26, 2026 | ||
| MSCI3 | 49.5 | ↑ Up |
| Conference Board4 | 93.1 | → Flat |
| GDP as of July 2, 2026 | ||
| GDPNow5 | 1.2% | ↓ Down |
| Unemployment as of July 2, 2026 | ||
| Unemployment6 | 4.2% | ↓ Down |
| Inflation as of June 25, 2026 | ||
| Core PCE7 | 3.4% | ↑ Up |
| Containerized Freight Index as of July 1, 2026 | ||
| TSI8 | 139.6 | ↑ Up |