TRA Macro Tracking Index
Current Outlook
So, yields continue to move in higher, and the dollar continues to weaken. And the Conference Board survey on consumer sentiment continues to move downward. And yet GDP for the 3rd Quarter was very strong on an annualized basis due to strong consumer spending through the summer. Current yields indicate potential stresses in the bond markets, with the dollar and yields moving in opposite directions. So much conflicting data out there!
Stay tuned for a quiet week of data releases. Maybe a clearer picture will begin to emerge.
| Variable + Date | Value | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Indicators as of December 23, 2025 | ||
| 10 Year Yields1 | 4.194 | ↑ Up |
| U.S. Dollar Index2 | 98.115 | ↓ Down |
| Consumer Confidence as of December 23, 2025 | ||
| MSCI3 | 52.9 | ↑ Up |
| Conference Board4 | 89.1 | ↓ Down |
| GDP as of December 16, 2025 | ||
| GDPNow5 | 3.5 | ↑ Up |
| Unemployment as of December 16, 2025 | ||
| Unemployment6 | 4.6% | ↑ Up |
| Inflation as of December 5, 2025 | ||
| Core PCE7 | 2.80% | ↓ Down |
| Containerized Freight Index as of December 10, 2025 | ||
| TSI8 | 136.5 | → Flat |