TRA Macro Tracking Index

The market has had a chance to digest the March payrolls along with ongoing aggressive rhetoric by the U.S. toward Iran, leaving yields and the dollar largely stable over the long weekend. The job market is decidedly weak now, with the prospect of a potential jobs related recession being more acute now than it was at any time in the last year. Labor market growth was very weak despite the headline jobs number in part due to people withdrawing from the labor market amid a very soft private sector labor market.

Inflation figures for March will come out later in the month, as will Michigan's consumer sentiment survey. So far, consumer confidence remains decidedly low.

Stay tuned as we digest the market reactions for what will likely be another eventful week.