TRA Macro Tracking Index
Current Outlook
Oil is trading higher around $100 a barrel, and yields have spiked again. The bond market is signaling material strain with a rapid rise in rates amid an uneven U.S. economy. Challenges are likely to remain for Fed policies, with the probability of a rate hike above 50% at the next Fed meeting in October.
Stay tuned next week as we get PCE prints for September and close out the quarter with more data drops.
| Variable + Date | Value | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Indicators as of September 25, 2026 | ||
| 10 Year Yields1 | 5.217 | ↑ Up |
| U.S. Dollar Index2 | 100.999 | ↓ Down |
| Consumer Confidence as of September 11, 2026 | ||
| MSCI3 | 47.9 | ↓ Down |
| Conference Board4 | 89.4 | ↓ Down |
| GDP as of September 25, 2026 | ||
| GDPNow5 | 5.0% | ↓ Down |
| Unemployment as of September 4, 2026 | ||
| Unemployment6 | 4.1% | → Flat |
| Inflation as of August 26, 2026 | ||
| Core PCE7 | 3.3% | → Flat |
| Containerized Freight Index as of September 1, 2026 | ||
| TSI8 | 134.9 | ↓ Down |