TRA Macro Tracking Index

Credit markets are essentially over the ceasefire, and back to seeing risks in the world. Those risks could be conflict in the Middle East, or this stubborn inflation, which was still hot even before the conflict began. The University of Michigan Consumer sentiment comes out tomorrow, but it will largely still account for pre-conflict feelings. Headline inflation will absolutely be higher. The conflict likely won't move core inflation up yet, but the longer it drags on, the more we can expect.

Yields are back up to where they were last week, and the dollar strengthened once again, supporting the risky nature of the economy.

Stay tuned for more!