TRA Macro Tracking Index

Yields continued to fall to start this short week. The dollar appreciated relative to other currencies. This type of movement is indicative of stress...most likely related to a slowing economy, weakish labor market, and inflationary pressures that are being concealed by a lack of data from the various shutdowns we've had. Core PCE, which is the inflation data that the Fed uses, has been unavailable for months, which is likely to show higher inflation than the CPI, which was released last week. So far, though, data points to a more dovish Fed with the new governor slated for appointment in the first half of the year.

Stay tuned as always!