TRA Macro Tracking Index
Current Outlook
Equities recovered today, which interestingly had little to no impact on the credit markets. Yields remained stable at albeit lower levels than we've seen in the last week, and the dollar fell nominally. Consumer sentiment remains largely unchanged, but one noteworthy point is that inflation expectations cooled for the next 12-months among consumers from 4% to 3.5%. Still that would place inflation higher than GDP, so the Fed and law makers still have a long way to go to reign in inflation expectations.
Have a great weekend, and when more government data is available, we'll give our thoughts on it here!
| Variable + Date | Value | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Indicators as of February 6, 2026 | ||
| 10 Year Yields1 | 4.21 | → Flat |
| U.S. Dollar Index2 | 97.676 | ↓ Down |
| Consumer Confidence as of February 6, 2026 | ||
| MSCI3 | 57.3 | ↑ Up |
| Conference Board4 | 84.5 | ↓ Down |
| GDP as of February 2, 2026 | ||
| GDPNow5 | 4.2 | → Flat |
| Unemployment as of January 9, 2026 | ||
| Unemployment6 | 4.4% | ↑ Up |
| Inflation as of January 22, 2025 | ||
| Core PCE7 | 2.80% | ↑ Up |
| Containerized Freight Index as of February 2, 2026 | ||
| TSI8 | 138.5 | ↑ Up |