TRA Macro Tracking Index

Yields are up as is the dollar on more tariff action. The Trump administration is sending out letters dictating tariff terms that would potentially (or not) go into effect August 1. More digestion in the markets form the "Big Beautiful Bill" is also likely to be felt in the bond markets, especially if growth continues to slow (as it has during the first half of 2025.

More details on the unemployment report have been digested, and it is sending weak signals, especially for a future downward revision in private sector employment.

So with tariffs and a softer job market, it's now more likely the economy finds inflation a harder nut to crack. If the Fed eventually conceded on Trump's demands for lower rates, inflation could accelerate (compounded by tariffs), but the cost of capital would likely get a reprieve. If the Fed holds on cutting rates, then unemployment could accelerate, but prices may be more under control. It may not be the stagflation of the 1970s, but it would be a challenge for CRE to navigate.

Look out for more details coming this week!