TRA Macro Tracking Index
Current Outlook
Wow what a way to end the week. Yields are really spiking today with the ten year ripping higher in a sign of rapidly deteriorating confidence in the economy. The markets are getting more comfortable with a longer term conflict in the Middle East. GDP growth is forecasting downward on sharp reductions in domestic capital investment, and the labor market, of course, remains more or less static. Inflation from rising oil prices is also expected to hang around for longer.
Wish we had a better way to end the week. Hopefully better news is to come.
| Variable + Date | Value | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Indicators as of March 20, 2026 | ||
| 10 Year Yields1 | 4.386 | ↑ Up |
| U.S. Dollar Index2 | 99.734 | ↑ Up |
| Consumer Confidence as of March 20, 2026 | ||
| MSCI3 | 55.5 | ↓ Down |
| Conference Board4 | 91.2 | ↑ Up |
| GDP as of March 20, 2026 | ||
| GDPNow5 | 2.3 | ↓ Down |
| Unemployment as of March 6, 2026 | ||
| Unemployment6 | 4.4% | ↑ Up |
| Inflation as of March 13, 2026 | ||
| Core PCE7 | 3.10% | ↑ Up |
| Containerized Freight Index as of March 2, 2026 | ||
| TSI8 | 137.8 | ↓ Down |