TRA Macro Tracking Index
Current Outlook
The market is quieter today after Thursday's sell off. Yields edged lower while the dollar inched higher. Consumer confidence remains low despite a very modest uptick after the federal government reopened. Going into the key shopping season, employment and inflation remain the order of the day, and unfortunately, the Fed just learned it won't get its preferred Core PCE data that measures inflation in time for its next meeting. Continue flying blind!
Have a great weekend!
| Variable + Date | Value | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Indicators as of November 21, 2025 | ||
| 10 Year Yields1 | 4.077 | ↓ Down |
| U.S. Dollar Index2 | 100.363 | ↑ Up |
| Consumer Confidence as of November 21, 2025 | ||
| MSCI3 | 51 | → Flat |
| Conference Board4 | 94.6 | ↓ Down |
| GDP as of November 19, 2025 | ||
| GDPNow5 | 4.2 | ↑ Up |
| Unemployment as of November 20, 2025 | ||
| Unemployment6 | 4.4% | ↑ Up |
| Inflation as of August 29, 2025 | ||
| Core PCE7 | 2.90% | ↑ Up |
| Containerized Freight Index as of November 13, 2025 | ||
| TSI8 | 136.2 | ↓ Down |