TRA Macro Tracking Index

Yields remain elevated on the 10-year, while the dollar strengthened relative to other currencies. Unemployment levels remain largely unchanged, as does consumer confidence, at least according to the University of Michigan's preliminary survey results.

GDP looks strong, but looks can be deceiving. The trade deficit is coming down, which means imports are shrinking. As a consumption economy, that could spell trouble for prices in the future and consumer spending.

One bright spot, the President announced that the GSEs should buy $200B in mortgage securities, something that is meant to provide some relief to mortgage rates. Nothing yet has taken place, but the market seems to like the idea as a mechanism for lowering mortgage rates (likely by about 25 basis points).

Have a great weekend!