TRA Macro Tracking Index
Current Outlook
Credit markets remain flat today, with the dollar edging down a bit and ten year yields mostly staying flat. Labor market conditions seem to be resuming their softening, with ADP indicating that private payrolls contracted by 32 thousand jobs in November. Looks more and more likely that a rate cut will take place next week as the Fed meets.
Stay tuned!
| Variable + Date | Value | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Indicators as of December 3, 2025 | ||
| 10 Year Yields1 | 4.065 | → Flat |
| U.S. Dollar Index2 | 98.847 | ↓ Down |
| Consumer Confidence as of November 26, 2025 | ||
| MSCI3 | 51 | → Flat |
| Conference Board4 | 88.7 | ↓ Down |
| GDP as of December 1, 2025 | ||
| GDPNow5 | 3.9 | ↓ Down |
| Unemployment as of November 20, 2025 | ||
| Unemployment6 | 4.4% | ↑ Up |
| Inflation as of August 29, 2025 | ||
| Core PCE7 | 2.90% | ↑ Up |
| Containerized Freight Index as of November 13, 2025 | ||
| TSI8 | 136.2 | ↓ Down |