TRA Macro Tracking Index
Current Outlook
Consumer confidence continues to deteriorate in October as yields stay high and inflation persists. Oil fell modestly today which sent yields a bit lower to end the week as President Trump noted that he will not Iran before the midterms, which the market is taking as nominally positive for bond prices.
Have a great weekend, and check back in next week as always!
| Variable + Date | Value | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Indicators as of October 9, 2026 | ||
| 10 Year Yields1 | 5.272 | ↓ Down |
| U.S. Dollar Index2 | 102.269 | ↑ Up |
| Consumer Confidence as of October 9, 2026 | ||
| MSCI3 | 46.3 | ↓ Down |
| Conference Board4 | 81.9 | ↓ Down |
| GDP as of October 8, 2026 | ||
| GDPNow5 | 3.6 | ↓ Down |
| Unemployment as of October 2, 2026 | ||
| Unemployment6 | 4.2% | ↑ Up |
| Inflation as of September 30, 2026 | ||
| Core PCE7 | 3.3% | → Flat |
| Containerized Freight Index as of October 1, 2026 | ||
| TSI8 | 135.7 | ↑ Up |