TRA Macro Tracking Index
Current Outlook
Inflation seems to be cooling, at least according to the CPI release today. That data point brought yields down substantially and strengthened the dollar to start the day. CPI growth was 2.4% for January, which is down from prior months. This data point now suggests more rate cuts are possible this year, which is what the market is reacting to.
Have a great holiday weekend! And stay tuned for more updates next week.
| Variable + Date | Value | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Indicators as of February 13, 2026 | ||
| 10 Year Yields1 | 4.085 | ↓ Down |
| U.S. Dollar Index2 | 96.907 | ↑ Up |
| Consumer Confidence as of February 6, 2026 | ||
| MSCI3 | 57.3 | ↑ Up |
| Conference Board4 | 84.5 | ↓ Down |
| GDP as of February 10, 2026 | ||
| GDPNow5 | 3.7 | ↓ Down |
| Unemployment as of February 11, 2026 | ||
| Unemployment6 | 4.3% | ↓ Down |
| Inflation as of January 22, 2025 | ||
| Core PCE7 | 2.80% | ↑ Up |
| Containerized Freight Index as of February 2, 2026 | ||
| TSI8 | 138.5 | ↑ Up |