TRA Macro Tracking Index
Current Outlook
Equity markets are getting shaky, so that of course means a modest pivot to fixed income, bringing yields on the 10-year down as well as a modest weakening of the dollar. Plus a new Fed Governor that the President is targeting for removal likely to improve the chances of lower interest rates. These overtures should send more stagflationary signals to the market if the materialize.
Stay tuned as always!
Variable + Date | Value | Direction |
---|---|---|
Macro Indicators as of August 20, 2025 | ||
10 Year Yields1 | 4.277 | ↓ Down |
U.S. Dollar Index2 | 98.14 | ↓ Down |
Consumer Confidence as of August 15, 2025 | ||
MSCI3 | 58.6 | ↓ Down |
Conference Board4 | 97.2 | ↑ Up |
GDP as of August 19, 2025 | ||
GDPNow5 | 2.3 | ↓ Down |
Unemployment as of August 1, 2025 | ||
Unemployment6 | 4.2% | ↑ Up |
Inflation as of July 31, 2025 | ||
Core PCE7 | 2.80% | ↑ Up |
Containerized Freight Index as of June 30, 2025 | ||
TSI8 | 137 | → Flat |