TRA Macro Tracking Index
Current Outlook
The U.S. economy added 162 thousand new jobs, a shock to the upside, in August, sending yields and the dollar higher and all be eliminating the prospect of a rate cut in September. Expect more conflict now between the Fed and the Administration on rate and trade policies, and slower macro growth for the foreseeable future. Of note is that the Bureau of Labor Statistics also revised up trailing three month numbers on the labor market.
Have a great long weekend, and catch up again next week with us!
| Variable + Date | Value | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Indicators as of September 4, 2026 | ||
| 10 Year Yields1 | 4.774 | ↑ Up |
| U.S. Dollar Index2 | 99.09 | ↑ Up |
| Consumer Confidence as of August 28, 2026 | ||
| MSCI3 | 51.7 | ↑ Up |
| Conference Board4 | 89.4 | ↓ Down |
| GDP as of August 26, 2026 | ||
| GDPNow5 | 4.6% | ↑ Up |
| Unemployment as of September 4, 2026 | ||
| Unemployment6 | 4.1% | → Flat |
| Inflation as of August 26, 2026 | ||
| Core PCE7 | 3.3% | → Flat |
| Containerized Freight Index as of September 1, 2026 | ||
| TSI8 | 134.9 | ↓ Down |