TRA Macro Tracking Index
Current Outlook
The weekend came and went, and yields and the dollar came down some, but not a lot, suggesting ongoing stress in the credit markets. Lots of data this week from the fall because the shutdown prevented us from getting this information. Here's a list of things we can expect to see:
November Jobs Report: Tuesday
November CPI: Thursdsay
October PCE Inflation: Friday
Michigan Consumer Confidence Index: Friday
There are more things coming, but we'll see just how reasonable the rate cuts we've seen this fall were and may get better insights into how likely we are to get more rate cuts in 2026.
Stay tuned as always!
| Variable + Date | Value | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Indicators as of December 15, 2025 | ||
| 10 Year Yields1 | 4.166 | ↓ Down |
| U.S. Dollar Index2 | 98.228 | ↓ Down |
| Consumer Confidence as of December 5, 2025 | ||
| MSCI3 | 53.3 | ↑ Up |
| Conference Board4 | 88.7 | ↓ Down |
| GDP as of December 11, 2025 | ||
| GDPNow5 | 3.6 | ↑ Up |
| Unemployment as of November 20, 2025 | ||
| Unemployment6 | 4.4% | ↑ Up |
| Inflation as of December 5, 2025 | ||
| Core PCE7 | 2.80% | ↓ Down |
| Containerized Freight Index as of November 13, 2025 | ||
| TSI8 | 136.2 | ↓ Down |