TRA Macro Tracking Index
Current Outlook
Despite gloom and doom around the price of oil remaining higher for longer, the market seems to be thinking tensions are easing, with yields and the dollar down. Credit markets are signaling less concern about the price of oil, but fundamentally there is no change on the ground apart from President Trump attempting to build a broad coalition to protect oil in the Strait of Hormuz. We have learned from recent weeks not to get too excited about data, but we can remain somewhat optimistic for the time being.
Stay tuned as always.
| Variable + Date | Value | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Indicators as of March 16, 2026 | ||
| 10 Year Yields1 | 4.228 | ↓ Down |
| U.S. Dollar Index2 | 99.873 | ↓ Down |
| Consumer Confidence as of February 24, 2026 | ||
| MSCI3 | 56.6 | ↓ Down |
| Conference Board4 | 91.2 | ↑ Up |
| GDP as of March 12, 2026 | ||
| GDPNow5 | 2.7 | ↓ Down |
| Unemployment as of March 6, 2026 | ||
| Unemployment6 | 4.4% | ↑ Up |
| Inflation as of March 13, 2026 | ||
| Core PCE7 | 3.10% | ↑ Up |
| Containerized Freight Index as of March 2, 2026 | ||
| TSI8 | 137.8 | ↓ Down |