TRA Macro Tracking Index
Current Outlook
Wild moves in the market, which is still remarkably sanguine about the prospects of conflict in the Middle East. The dollar strengthened and yields remained elevated compared to where they were at the end of last week. More data coming this week, including labor market data!
Stay tuned as always.
| Variable + Date | Value | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Indicators as of March 4, 2026 | ||
| 10 Year Yields1 | 4.079 | → Flat |
| U.S. Dollar Index2 | 98.785 | ↓ Down |
| Consumer Confidence as of February 24, 2026 | ||
| MSCI3 | 56.6 | ↓ Down |
| Conference Board4 | 91.2 | ↑ Up |
| GDP as of March 2, 2026 | ||
| GDPNow5 | 3.0 | ↓ Down |
| Unemployment as of February 11, 2026 | ||
| Unemployment6 | 4.3% | ↓ Down |
| Inflation as of February 20, 2026 | ||
| Core PCE7 | 2.90% | ↑ Up |
| Containerized Freight Index as of February 2, 2026 | ||
| TSI8 | 138.5 | ↑ Up |