TRA Macro Tracking Index
Current Outlook
Yields and the dollar are having an interesting end of the week, with 10 years spiking 8 bps overnight and the dollar appreciating against other currencies. It seems that Oracle's optimistic AI spending is weighing on the tech sector (and adjacent sectors) bringing yields higher. Interesting turn of events in a week where the Fed cut its benchmark target rate 25bps.
Stay tuned to see if credit conditions calm, or continue on their tenuous march.
| Variable + Date | Value | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Indicators as of December 12, 2025 | ||
| 10 Year Yields1 | 4.188 | ↑ Up |
| U.S. Dollar Index2 | 98.438 | ↑ Up |
| Consumer Confidence as of December 5, 2025 | ||
| MSCI3 | 53.3 | ↑ Up |
| Conference Board4 | 88.7 | ↓ Down |
| GDP as of December 11, 2025 | ||
| GDPNow5 | 3.6 | ↑ Up |
| Unemployment as of November 20, 2025 | ||
| Unemployment6 | 4.4% | ↑ Up |
| Inflation as of December 5, 2025 | ||
| Core PCE7 | 2.80% | ↓ Down |
| Containerized Freight Index as of November 13, 2025 | ||
| TSI8 | 136.2 | ↓ Down |