TRA Macro Tracking Index

Current Outlook

So, yields continue to move in higher, and the dollar continues to weaken. And the Conference Board survey on consumer sentiment continues to move downward. And yet GDP for the 3rd Quarter was very strong on an annualized basis due to strong consumer spending through the summer. Current yields indicate potential stresses in the bond markets, with the dollar and yields moving in opposite directions. So much conflicting data out there!

Stay tuned for a quiet week of data releases. Maybe a clearer picture will begin to emerge.

Variable + DateValueDirection
Macro Indicators as of December 23, 2025
10 Year Yields14.194↑ Up
U.S. Dollar Index298.115↓ Down
Consumer Confidence as of December 23, 2025
MSCI352.9↑ Up
Conference Board489.1↓ Down
GDP as of December 16, 2025
GDPNow53.5↑ Up
Unemployment as of December 16, 2025
Unemployment64.6%↑ Up
Inflation as of December 5, 2025
Core PCE72.80%↓ Down
Containerized Freight Index as of December 10, 2025
TSI8136.5→ Flat