TRA Macro Tracking Index
Current Outlook
The dollar weakened and yields rose amid a weak 20 year Treasury auction on May 21, 2025. Investors in U.S. Treasuries are looking for more yield to take on long-term U.S. paper risks in part due to the prospect of the House Budget bills passage before Memorial Day. This is a relatively clear signal that U.S. fiscal strains remain present in the market.
| Variable + Date | Value | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Indicators as of May 21, 2025 | ||
| 10 Year Yields1 | 4.595 | ↑ Up |
| U.S. Dollar Index2 | 99.64 | ↓ Down |
| Consumer Confidence as of May 16, 2025 | ||
| MSCI3 | 50.8 | ↓ Down |
| Conference Board4 | 86 | ↓ Down |
| GDP as of May 19, 2025 | ||
| GDPNow5 | 2.4% | ↓ Down |
| Unemployment as of March 1, 2025 | ||
| Unemployment6 | 4.20% | → Flat |
| Inflation as of March 31, 2025 | ||
| Core PCE7 | 2.60% | ↓ Down |
| Containerized Freight Index as of March 31, 2025 | ||
| TSI8 | 137.0 | → Flat |