TRA Macro Tracking Index

Current Outlook

Japanese 10 year bond yields inched above 2%, which saw U.S. yields and the dollar rise as well. Consumer sentiment, according to the University of Michigan, also edged slightly higher, but still remain close to historic lows. The big data week has many caveats around data completeness and accuracy, but overall sentiment is not much changed from the prior week. Some increased volatility around future Fed independence and policy, but while weakened, no real indications of material stress.

Have a great weekend!

Variable + DateValueDirection
Macro Indicators as of December 19, 2025
10 Year Yields14.131↑ Up
U.S. Dollar Index298.668↑ Up
Consumer Confidence as of December 19, 2025
MSCI352.9↑ Up
Conference Board488.7↓ Down
GDP as of December 16, 2025
GDPNow53.5↑ Up
Unemployment as of December 16, 2025
Unemployment64.6%↑ Up
Inflation as of December 5, 2025
Core PCE72.80%↓ Down
Containerized Freight Index as of November 13, 2025
TSI8136.2↓ Down