TRA Macro Tracking Index
Current Outlook
Credit markets don't appear to be taking seriously the prospect of Trump's rhetoric launching a wider conflict or dramatically escalating it. But if the U.S. engages in wide scale attacks on Iran, energy markets would likely face considerably higher prices. We can all hope that an resolution arises soon that avoids more destruction.
Stay tuned, and watch the yields throughout the day to gauge market sentiment. If yields rise sharply later in the day, it would be an indicator that the market is not seeing an easy off ramp.
| Variable + Date | Value | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Indicators as of April 7, 2026 | ||
| 10 Year Yields1 | 4.36 | → Flat |
| U.S. Dollar Index2 | 99.906 | ↓ Down |
| Consumer Confidence as of March 31, 2026 | ||
| MSCI3 | 53.3 | ↓ Down |
| Conference Board4 | 91.2 | ↑ Up |
| GDP as of April 3, 2026 | ||
| GDPNow5 | 1.6% | ↓ Down |
| Unemployment as of April 3, 2026 | ||
| Unemployment6 | 4.3% | ↓ Down |
| Inflation as of March 13, 2026 | ||
| Core PCE7 | 3.10% | ↑ Up |
| Containerized Freight Index as of March 2, 2026 | ||
| TSI8 | 137.8 | ↓ Down |