TRA Macro Tracking Index
Current Outlook
Japanese 10 year bond yields inched above 2%, which saw U.S. yields and the dollar rise as well. Consumer sentiment, according to the University of Michigan, also edged slightly higher, but still remain close to historic lows. The big data week has many caveats around data completeness and accuracy, but overall sentiment is not much changed from the prior week. Some increased volatility around future Fed independence and policy, but while weakened, no real indications of material stress.
Have a great weekend!
| Variable + Date | Value | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Indicators as of December 19, 2025 | ||
| 10 Year Yields1 | 4.131 | ↑ Up |
| U.S. Dollar Index2 | 98.668 | ↑ Up |
| Consumer Confidence as of December 19, 2025 | ||
| MSCI3 | 52.9 | ↑ Up |
| Conference Board4 | 88.7 | ↓ Down |
| GDP as of December 16, 2025 | ||
| GDPNow5 | 3.5 | ↑ Up |
| Unemployment as of December 16, 2025 | ||
| Unemployment6 | 4.6% | ↑ Up |
| Inflation as of December 5, 2025 | ||
| Core PCE7 | 2.80% | ↓ Down |
| Containerized Freight Index as of November 13, 2025 | ||
| TSI8 | 136.2 | ↓ Down |