TRA Macro Tracking Index
Current Outlook
It is proving to be a very wild week for bonds, closing out about 20 bps lower than the more than two decade highs just a few days ago. Yields and the dollar are both down from the start of the week, but the narrative is changing, with the growth engine of the economy under pressure. This may not prove to be the most promising sign for markets, especially as PPI hit very hard in the month of September, indicating we appear far from done with inflation's tight grasp.
Have a great weekend!
| Variable + Date | Value | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Indicators as of October 16, 2026 | ||
| 10 Year Yields1 | 5.094 | ↑ Up |
| U.S. Dollar Index2 | 101.685 | ↓ Down |
| Consumer Confidence as of October 9, 2026 | ||
| MSCI3 | 46.3 | ↓ Down |
| Conference Board4 | 81.9 | ↓ Down |
| GDP as of October 15, 2026 | ||
| GDPNow5 | 3.6 | → Flat |
| Unemployment as of October 2, 2026 | ||
| Unemployment6 | 4.2% | ↑ Up |
| Inflation as of September 30, 2026 | ||
| Core PCE7 | 3.3% | → Flat |
| Containerized Freight Index as of October 1, 2026 | ||
| TSI8 | 135.7 | ↑ Up |