TRA Macro Tracking Index
Current Outlook
The Fed cut the benchmark rate on Wednesday, sending 10 year yields and the dollar lower. The Fed chair in part noted that it believes joblessness is being under reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, overstating openings by 60 thousand jobs per month. That could spell a very different picture for the labor market than we have been told by the departments. And due to the government shutdown we are still operating in a data shadow with growing uncertainty.
Stay tuned!
| Variable + Date | Value | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Indicators as of December 11, 2025 | ||
| 10 Year Yields1 | 4.12 | ↓ Down |
| U.S. Dollar Index2 | 98.168 | ↓ Down |
| Consumer Confidence as of December 5, 2025 | ||
| MSCI3 | 53.3 | ↑ Up |
| Conference Board4 | 88.7 | ↓ Down |
| GDP as of December 8, 2025 | ||
| GDPNow5 | 3.5 | ↓ Down |
| Unemployment as of November 20, 2025 | ||
| Unemployment6 | 4.4% | ↑ Up |
| Inflation as of December 5, 2025 | ||
| Core PCE7 | 2.80% | ↓ Down |
| Containerized Freight Index as of November 13, 2025 | ||
| TSI8 | 136.2 | ↓ Down |