TRA Macro Tracking Index
Current Outlook
Big updates. After bond market fits in recent weeks, the Treasury department engaged in a $4 billion buyback of longer dated Treasuries in an effort to bring yields down. Surely enough, that measure moved yields down and bond prices up. Risks will be inflation longer term, but the measure was fairly small in scale, with a doubling of its buyback operations between September and early November. This is an opening shot against yield pressure, and credit markets so far are cheering the decision with rising prices.
Stay tuned for more updates!
| Variable + Date | Value | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Indicators as of August 19, 2026 | ||
| 10 Year Yields1 | 4.655 | ↓ Down |
| U.S. Dollar Index2 | 98.91 | ↓ Down |
| Consumer Confidence as of August 14, 2026 | ||
| MSCI3 | 51.0 | ↓ Down |
| Conference Board4 | 90.8 | ↓ Down |
| GDP as of August 18, 2026 | ||
| GDPNow5 | 4.0% | ↓ Down |
| Unemployment as of August 7, 2026 | ||
| Unemployment6 | 4.1% | ↓ Down |
| Inflation as of July 30, 2026 | ||
| Core PCE7 | 3.3% | ↓ Down |
| Containerized Freight Index as of August 3, 2026 | ||
| TSI8 | 136.7 | ↓ Down |