TRA Macro Tracking Index
Current Outlook
As oil prices rise, the tech sell off continues, and broader AI sentiment is being challenged, yields have come back down to below 5.00%, indicating a more risk off sentiment. Consumer confidence remains low, according to the University of Michigan Survey, and with the Midterms less than two weeks away, there is rising concern around more strikes in and around the Middle East.
Next week we have the last Fed Meeting before the election. Should be a helpful week for data as PCE also comes in.
Have a great weekend!
| Variable + Date | Value | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Indicators as of October 23, 2026 | ||
| 10 Year Yields1 | 4.997 | ↓ Down |
| U.S. Dollar Index2 | 101.747 | → Flat |
| Consumer Confidence as of October 23, 2026 | ||
| MSCI3 | 48 | ↓ Down |
| Conference Board4 | 81.9 | ↓ Down |
| GDP as of October 20, 2026 | ||
| GDPNow5 | 3.5 | ↓ Down |
| Unemployment as of October 2, 2026 | ||
| Unemployment6 | 4.2% | ↑ Up |
| Inflation as of September 30, 2026 | ||
| Core PCE7 | 3.3% | → Flat |
| Containerized Freight Index as of October 1, 2026 | ||
| TSI8 | 135.7 | ↑ Up |