TRA Macro Tracking Index

Current Outlook

The market has had a chance to digest the March payrolls along with ongoing aggressive rhetoric by the U.S. toward Iran, leaving yields and the dollar largely stable over the long weekend. The job market is decidedly weak now, with the prospect of a potential jobs related recession being more acute now than it was at any time in the last year. Labor market growth was very weak despite the headline jobs number in part due to people withdrawing from the labor market amid a very soft private sector labor market.

Inflation figures for March will come out later in the month, as will Michigan's consumer sentiment survey. So far, consumer confidence remains decidedly low.

Stay tuned as we digest the market reactions for what will likely be another eventful week.

Variable + DateValueDirection
Macro Indicators as of April 6, 2026
10 Year Yields14.352→ Flat
U.S. Dollar Index2100.137→ Flat
Consumer Confidence as of March 31, 2026
MSCI353.3↓ Down
Conference Board491.2↑ Up
GDP as of April 3, 2026
GDPNow51.6%↓ Down
Unemployment as of April 3, 2026
Unemployment64.3%↓ Down
Inflation as of March 13, 2026
Core PCE73.10%↑ Up
Containerized Freight Index as of March 2, 2026
TSI8137.8↓ Down