TRA Macro Tracking Index
Current Outlook
Jobs data was released today, with a softer than expected print. Unemployment rose to 4.2% in September adding 29 thousand jobs for the month. Manufacturing saw the largest increase, while healthcare hiring slowed. Bond markets responded with yields coming down nominally and a relatively flat dollar. Markets more broadly reduced the likelihood of a rate hike in October, though with prices remaining higher, the odds of a rate hike at the Fed's December meeting increased following the Jobs report.
Stay tuned for more updates next week, and have a great weekend!
| Variable + Date | Value | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Indicators as of October 2, 2026 | ||
| 10 Year Yields1 | 5.26 | ↓ Down |
| U.S. Dollar Index2 | 101.919 | ↑ Up |
| Consumer Confidence as of September 30, 2026 | ||
| MSCI3 | 48.1 | → Flat |
| Conference Board4 | 81.9 | ↓ Down |
| GDP as of October 1, 2026 | ||
| GDPNow5 | 3.7 | ↓ Down |
| Unemployment as of October 2, 2026 | ||
| Unemployment6 | 4.2% | ↑ Up |
| Inflation as of September 30, 2026 | ||
| Core PCE7 | 3.3% | → Flat |
| Containerized Freight Index as of October 1, 2026 | ||
| TSI8 | 135.7 | ↑ Up |