TRA Macro Tracking Index
Current Outlook
The Fed will announce its benchmark rate policies today. Quantitative tightening is ending, and there is upward pressure on short-term rates of late given due to inflationary expectations and a the notion that the future Fed could be less independent. All this to say, rates have been largely flat over night, while the dollar weakened against other currencies over night. And the labor market is remaining softer, which, may actually be slowing inflation's emergence.
Stay tuned for more insights.
| Variable + Date | Value | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Indicators as of December 10, 2025 | ||
| 10 Year Yields1 | 4.168 | → Flat |
| U.S. Dollar Index2 | 99.022 | ↓ Down |
| Consumer Confidence as of December 5, 2025 | ||
| MSCI3 | 53.3 | ↑ Up |
| Conference Board4 | 88.7 | ↓ Down |
| GDP as of December 8, 2025 | ||
| GDPNow5 | 3.5 | ↓ Down |
| Unemployment as of November 20, 2025 | ||
| Unemployment6 | 4.4% | ↑ Up |
| Inflation as of December 5, 2025 | ||
| Core PCE7 | 2.80% | ↓ Down |
| Containerized Freight Index as of November 13, 2025 | ||
| TSI8 | 136.2 | ↓ Down |