TRA Macro Tracking Index
Current Outlook
The tech and AI sell off that hit this week is starting to bring yields down, but mostly as a flight to quality resumes. Conflict in the Middle East continues to shape the credit landscape. Diesel prices in the U.S., which move the majority of freight, are poised to drive more inflation for the U.S. consumer. Despite this, consumer sentiment has improved a bit since June, though that's mainly on lower gas prices (those prices are likely to go back up a bit now that conflict has returned).
Have a great weekend! Check back next week for more updates!
| Variable + Date | Value | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Indicators as of July 17, 2026 | ||
| 10 Year Yields1 | 4.525 | ↓ Down |
| U.S. Dollar Index2 | 100.741 | ↑ Up |
| Consumer Confidence as of July 17, 2026 | ||
| MSCI3 | 54.4 | ↑ Up |
| Conference Board4 | 91.2 | → Flat |
| GDP as of July 16, 2026 | ||
| GDPNow5 | 1.7% | ↑ Up |
| Unemployment as of July 2, 2026 | ||
| Unemployment6 | 4.2% | ↓ Down |
| Inflation as of June 25, 2026 | ||
| Core PCE7 | 3.4% | ↑ Up |
| Containerized Freight Index as of July 1, 2026 | ||
| TSI8 | 139.6 | ↑ Up |