TRA Macro Tracking Index
Current Outlook
Ten year yields continue to fall along with the dollar, but yields still seem to have broken out to a higher band as they are remaining elevated (likely due to the Japanese Government Bond weakness). On the plus side, the weekly unemployment reports indicate the labor market remains relatively static (no material job losses) and consumer confidence is inching higher (but still very weak compared to where we were six months ago). Inflation of course is still persistent and consumers expect it to remain high for the coming year, according to the University of Michigan survey.
Have a great weekend.
| Variable + Date | Value | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Indicators as of January 23, 2026 | ||
| 10 Year Yields1 | 4.245 | ↓ Down |
| U.S. Dollar Index2 | 98.218 | ↓ Down |
| Consumer Confidence as of January 23, 2026 | ||
| MSCI3 | 56.4 | ↑ Up |
| Conference Board4 | 89.1 | ↓ Down |
| GDP as of January 22, 2026 | ||
| GDPNow5 | 5.4 | → Flat |
| Unemployment as of January 9, 2026 | ||
| Unemployment6 | 4.4% | ↑ Up |
| Inflation as of January 22, 2025 | ||
| Core PCE7 | 2.80% | ↑ Up |
| Containerized Freight Index as of December 10, 2025 | ||
| TSI8 | 136.5 | → Flat |