TRA Macro Tracking Index

New risks emerge with the strike on Iran. Too early to tell how this will play out, but in the meantime, the dollar and yields rose modestly overnight, as did energy prices. This development is likely to do little in the short-term to impact the potential for rising core prices from current tariff policies, but it is likely to drive increases in headline inflation, which includes the price of energy.

We will continue to watch for updates, and see how this impacts U.S. fiscal and potential monetary policies. Stay tuned!