TRA Macro Tracking Index

Big news day. Preliminary unemployment numbers for June were released July 3, and it showed an unexpected increase in hiring, adding 147 thousand new jobs. Details behind the number indicate private sector openings contracting, which were offset by federal and educational hiring for the month.

Unemployment, combined with the likely passage in the House of the "Big Beautiful Bill" are driving yields and the dollar higher. The market is likely reacting to the need for greater U.S. debt and the challenges faced by the Fed in curtailing inflationary pressures when headline employment figures are unexpectedly high. Still, the labor market appears to be cooling, but investors still don't appear to be betting on a July rate cut at the Fed.

Enjoy the July 4th Holiday and stay tuned for more updates next week!