TRA Macro Tracking Index
Current Outlook
We've been updating this page for a little over a year, and it seems like now is the time that credit markets are beginning to really crack. There's no real slowing of momentum on the U.S. government rising bond yields. Unlike Liberation Day tariffs, there is no easy way to back out of the oil jam the world currently finds itself in. Stagflation is the market headline, and not a subtle whisper like it used to be.
Stay tuned as more details drop this week.
| Variable + Date | Value | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Indicators as of May 19, 2026 | ||
| 10 Year Yields1 | 4.673 | ↑ Up |
| U.S. Dollar Index2 | 99.406 | ↑ Up |
| Consumer Confidence as of May 8, 2026 | ||
| MSCI3 | 48.2 | ↓ Down |
| Conference Board4 | 92.8 | ↑ Up |
| GDP as of May 14, 2026 | ||
| GDPNow5 | 4.0% | ↑ Up |
| Unemployment as of May 8, 2026 | ||
| Unemployment6 | 4.3% | → Flat |
| Inflation as of April 30, 2026 | ||
| Core PCE7 | 3.2% | ↑ Up |
| Containerized Freight Index as of May 1, 2026 | ||
| TSI8 | 139.8 | ↑ Up |