TRA Macro Tracking Index

Current Outlook

The labor market weakened in November, yields remained unchanged, and the dollar slid against other currencies. All in, not a great start to a big week of data releases. The softer economy and stubborn yields are suggesting that inflation may continue as a threat, and could prop yields for the foreseeable future. The cost of debt may remain where it is without more fiscal and monetary support. We'll keep digesting the information as it comes out.

Here's a list of things we can expect to see:

November CPI: Thursday

October PCE Inflation: Friday

Michigan Consumer Confidence Index: Friday

Stay tuned as always!

Variable + DateValueDirection
Macro Indicators as of December 16, 2025
10 Year Yields14.163→ Flat
U.S. Dollar Index298.065↓ Down
Consumer Confidence as of December 5, 2025
MSCI353.3↑ Up
Conference Board488.7↓ Down
GDP as of December 16, 2025
GDPNow53.5↑ Up
Unemployment as of December 16, 2025
Unemployment64.6%↑ Up
Inflation as of December 5, 2025
Core PCE72.80%↓ Down
Containerized Freight Index as of November 13, 2025
TSI8136.2↓ Down