TRA Macro Tracking Index
Current Outlook
The conflict in Iran over the weekend marks a major escalation in hostilities and is poised to send equity markets, which already had a rough week last week, down. The dollar strengthened over the weekend, while oil and other safe haven assets saw positive price movement. That said, U.S. sovereign credit markets remain stoic. Not much movement. We are seeing other credit spreads widen due to the conflict, and this is made worse by the private credit fears that have been percolating for a while now, but coming back into the headlines.
Stay tuned all week!
| Variable + Date | Value | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Indicators as of March 2, 2026 | ||
| 10 Year Yields1 | 3.979 | → Flat |
| U.S. Dollar Index2 | 98.353 | ↑ Up |
| Consumer Confidence as of February 24, 2026 | ||
| MSCI3 | 56.6 | ↓ Down |
| Conference Board4 | 91.2 | ↑ Up |
| GDP as of March 2, 2026 | ||
| GDPNow5 | 3.0 | ↓ Down |
| Unemployment as of February 11, 2026 | ||
| Unemployment6 | 4.3% | ↓ Down |
| Inflation as of February 20, 2026 | ||
| Core PCE7 | 2.90% | ↑ Up |
| Containerized Freight Index as of February 2, 2026 | ||
| TSI8 | 138.5 | ↑ Up |