TRA Macro Tracking Index
Current Outlook
Yields continued to climb, and the dollar weakened over night. And the big data lapse this time will be labor department data. Perhaps inflation data will also be delayed due to the partial government shutdown. Precious metals are rebounding after a broad sell off, while crypto continues falling. Basically, not much cohesion in the data today.
Stay tuned as we navigate the hopefully temporary blackout in government data.
| Variable + Date | Value | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Indicators as of February 3, 2026 | ||
| 10 Year Yields1 | 4.287 | ↑ Up |
| U.S. Dollar Index2 | 97.427 | ↓ Down |
| Consumer Confidence as of January 27, 2026 | ||
| MSCI3 | 56.4 | ↑ Up |
| Conference Board4 | 84.5 | ↓ Down |
| GDP as of February 2, 2026 | ||
| GDPNow5 | 4.2 | → Flat |
| Unemployment as of January 9, 2026 | ||
| Unemployment6 | 4.4% | ↑ Up |
| Inflation as of January 22, 2025 | ||
| Core PCE7 | 2.80% | ↑ Up |
| Containerized Freight Index as of December 10, 2025 | ||
| TSI8 | 136.5 | → Flat |