TRA Macro Tracking Index

Unemployment ticked lower, but not for the right reasons. More labor participation declines and overall job losses, with backward revisions of prior months reports, showing a decidedly soft labor market. The weak labor figures now complicate the Fed's hand with inflation still painful. As a result, yields and the dollar fell, but not by much. CPI data will print next week for July, so more data will be inbound. In the meantime, we will wait and see, but absent further job losses, there still wouldn't be much ammo to support a rate cut.

Have a great weekend and check back next week!