TRA Macro Tracking Index
Current Outlook
The labor market weakened in November, yields remained unchanged, and the dollar slid against other currencies. All in, not a great start to a big week of data releases. The softer economy and stubborn yields are suggesting that inflation may continue as a threat, and could prop yields for the foreseeable future. The cost of debt may remain where it is without more fiscal and monetary support. We'll keep digesting the information as it comes out.
Here's a list of things we can expect to see:
November CPI: Thursday
October PCE Inflation: Friday
Michigan Consumer Confidence Index: Friday
Stay tuned as always!
| Variable + Date | Value | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Indicators as of December 16, 2025 | ||
| 10 Year Yields1 | 4.163 | → Flat |
| U.S. Dollar Index2 | 98.065 | ↓ Down |
| Consumer Confidence as of December 5, 2025 | ||
| MSCI3 | 53.3 | ↑ Up |
| Conference Board4 | 88.7 | ↓ Down |
| GDP as of December 16, 2025 | ||
| GDPNow5 | 3.5 | ↑ Up |
| Unemployment as of December 16, 2025 | ||
| Unemployment6 | 4.6% | ↑ Up |
| Inflation as of December 5, 2025 | ||
| Core PCE7 | 2.80% | ↓ Down |
| Containerized Freight Index as of November 13, 2025 | ||
| TSI8 | 136.2 | ↓ Down |