TRA Macro Tracking Index

Current Outlook

Wow what a way to end the week. Yields are really spiking today with the ten year ripping higher in a sign of rapidly deteriorating confidence in the economy. The markets are getting more comfortable with a longer term conflict in the Middle East. GDP growth is forecasting downward on sharp reductions in domestic capital investment, and the labor market, of course, remains more or less static. Inflation from rising oil prices is also expected to hang around for longer.

Wish we had a better way to end the week. Hopefully better news is to come.

Variable + DateValueDirection
Macro Indicators as of March 20, 2026
10 Year Yields14.386↑ Up
U.S. Dollar Index299.734↑ Up
Consumer Confidence as of March 20, 2026
MSCI355.5↓ Down
Conference Board491.2↑ Up
GDP as of March 20, 2026
GDPNow52.3↓ Down
Unemployment as of March 6, 2026
Unemployment64.4%↑ Up
Inflation as of March 13, 2026
Core PCE73.10%↑ Up
Containerized Freight Index as of March 2, 2026
TSI8137.8↓ Down