TRA Macro Tracking Index

Lots of data to unpack. Yields and the dollar moved together down, owing to the impact from tariffs (the U.S. signed a deal with China that settles on import tariffs of 30% for U.S. importers, which should bring some price stability albeit at higher prices than before Liberation Day (consumers could see prices up between 2% and 3% on products from China). The dollar's fall coincides with increased deficits from the Big Beautiful Bill, though that too is undergoing many changes, so we will keep watching.

Consumer confidence is a mixed bag: University of Michigan saw a modest uptick in confidence, though consumers are expecting higher inflation in the second half of the year. The Conference Board saw greater pessimism about the job market and inflation, resulting in a deterioration in consumer confidence.

GDP growth for the second quarter is now coming in below 3% and could be subject to further revisions downward as consumers spend less on services amid price uncertainty.

Uncertainty and conflict in the Middle East has so far not resulted in capital market volatility.

More data coming includes unemployment. Stay tuned!