TRA Macro Tracking Index

Current Outlook

Despite gloom and doom around the price of oil remaining higher for longer, the market seems to be thinking tensions are easing, with yields and the dollar down. Credit markets are signaling less concern about the price of oil, but fundamentally there is no change on the ground apart from President Trump attempting to build a broad coalition to protect oil in the Strait of Hormuz. We have learned from recent weeks not to get too excited about data, but we can remain somewhat optimistic for the time being.

Stay tuned as always.

Variable + DateValueDirection
Macro Indicators as of March 16, 2026
10 Year Yields14.228↓ Down
U.S. Dollar Index299.873↓ Down
Consumer Confidence as of February 24, 2026
MSCI356.6↓ Down
Conference Board491.2↑ Up
GDP as of March 12, 2026
GDPNow52.7↓ Down
Unemployment as of March 6, 2026
Unemployment64.4%↑ Up
Inflation as of March 13, 2026
Core PCE73.10%↑ Up
Containerized Freight Index as of March 2, 2026
TSI8137.8↓ Down