TRA Macro Tracking Index

Current Outlook

The conflict in Iran over the weekend marks a major escalation in hostilities and is poised to send equity markets, which already had a rough week last week, down. The dollar strengthened over the weekend, while oil and other safe haven assets saw positive price movement. That said, U.S. sovereign credit markets remain stoic. Not much movement. We are seeing other credit spreads widen due to the conflict, and this is made worse by the private credit fears that have been percolating for a while now, but coming back into the headlines.

Stay tuned all week!

Variable + DateValueDirection
Macro Indicators as of March 2, 2026
10 Year Yields13.979→ Flat
U.S. Dollar Index298.353↑ Up
Consumer Confidence as of February 24, 2026
MSCI356.6↓ Down
Conference Board491.2↑ Up
GDP as of March 2, 2026
GDPNow53.0↓ Down
Unemployment as of February 11, 2026
Unemployment64.3%↓ Down
Inflation as of February 20, 2026
Core PCE72.90%↑ Up
Containerized Freight Index as of February 2, 2026
TSI8138.5↑ Up