TRA Macro Tracking Index

Bad day out there. The labor market remains soft, as evidenced by the February jobs report. Headline numbers indicate modest stagflationary pressures, with an uptick in pay and a down tick in total employment. Important to know there were layoffs and some bad winter weather, both of which tend to skew toward the negative, which may get revised to less frightening levels, but the overall trend remains negative. Oil shocks are also still present, so yields remain high and while the Fed may still bias toward rate cuts, there is nothing in the current data that indicates it could come soon.

Tough way to end the week. Have a great weekend and stay tuned!