TRA Macro Tracking Index
Current Outlook
The announced ceasefire was welcome news for markets, which reacted with bond yields falling along with the dollar. Will it last? Who knows, but the markets remain optimistic at this early stage. If the peace holds, we can look to the more traditional macro economic indicators for guidance again. The labor market remains flat, and GDP growth is tracking poorly YTD, and well below inflation (our next reading comes later this week as does an update on consumer confidence from a trusted source.
Stay tuned as always.
| Variable + Date | Value | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Indicators as of April 8, 2026 | ||
| 10 Year Yields1 | 4.265 | ↓ Down |
| U.S. Dollar Index2 | 98.813 | ↓ Down |
| Consumer Confidence as of March 31, 2026 | ||
| MSCI3 | 53.3 | ↓ Down |
| Conference Board4 | 91.2 | ↑ Up |
| GDP as of April 8, 2026 | ||
| GDPNow5 | 1.3% | ↓ Down |
| Unemployment as of April 3, 2026 | ||
| Unemployment6 | 4.3% | ↓ Down |
| Inflation as of March 13, 2026 | ||
| Core PCE7 | 3.10% | ↑ Up |
| Containerized Freight Index as of April 1, 2026 | ||
| TSI8 | 136.4 | ↓ Down |