TRA Macro Tracking Index

Current Outlook

Yields are up as is the dollar on more tariff action. The Trump administration is sending out letters dictating tariff terms that would potentially (or not) go into effect August 1. More digestion in the markets form the "Big Beautiful Bill" is also likely to be felt in the bond markets, especially if growth continues to slow (as it has during the first half of 2025.

More details on the unemployment report have been digested, and it is sending weak signals, especially for a future downward revision in private sector employment.

So with tariffs and a softer job market, it's now more likely the economy finds inflation a harder nut to crack. If the Fed eventually conceded on Trump's demands for lower rates, inflation could accelerate (compounded by tariffs), but the cost of capital would likely get a reprieve. If the Fed holds on cutting rates, then unemployment could accelerate, but prices may be more under control. It may not be the stagflation of the 1970s, but it would be a challenge for CRE to navigate.

Look out for more details coming this week!

Variable + DateValueDirection
Macro Indicators as of July 7, 2025
10 Year Yields14.393↑ Up
U.S. Dollar Index297.51↑ Up
Consumer Confidence as of June 27, 2025
MSCI360.7→ Flat
Conference Board493↓ Down
GDP as of July 3, 2025
GDPNow52.6↑ Up
Unemployment as of July 3, 2025
Unemployment64.1%↓ Down
Inflation as of June 27, 2025
Core PCE72.70%↑ Up
Containerized Freight Index as of April 30, 2025
TSI8136.3↓ Down