TRA Macro Tracking Index
Current Outlook
Labor market reported 172 thousand new jobs, with big jumps in leisure and hospitality, food service, and of course healthcare. This is sending yields higher due to the growing evidence that rates may in fact need a hike before the end of the year. Backward revisions up on employment levels were also included in this release, further supporting the stagflationary trends that have been weighing on the economy for more than a year now.
Have a great weekend.
| Variable + Date | Value | Direction |
|---|---|---|
| Macro Indicators as of June 5, 2026 | ||
| 10 Year Yields1 | 4.53 | ↑ Up |
| U.S. Dollar Index2 | 99.522 | ↑ Up |
| Consumer Confidence as of May 26, 2026 | ||
| MSCI3 | 44.8 | ↓ Down |
| Conference Board4 | 93.1 | → Flat |
| GDP as of June 1, 2026 | ||
| GDPNow5 | 3.0% | ↓ Down |
| Unemployment as of June 5, 2026 | ||
| Unemployment6 | 4.3% | → Flat |
| Inflation as of May 28, 2026 | ||
| Core PCE7 | 3.3% | ↑ Up |
| Containerized Freight Index as of June 1, 2026 | ||
| TSI8 | 138.7 | ↓ Down |