TRA Macro Tracking Index

Current Outlook

Ten year yields continue to fall along with the dollar, but yields still seem to have broken out to a higher band as they are remaining elevated (likely due to the Japanese Government Bond weakness). On the plus side, the weekly unemployment reports indicate the labor market remains relatively static (no material job losses) and consumer confidence is inching higher (but still very weak compared to where we were six months ago). Inflation of course is still persistent and consumers expect it to remain high for the coming year, according to the University of Michigan survey.

Have a great weekend.

Variable + DateValueDirection
Macro Indicators as of January 23, 2026
10 Year Yields14.245↓ Down
U.S. Dollar Index298.218↓ Down
Consumer Confidence as of January 23, 2026
MSCI356.4↑ Up
Conference Board489.1↓ Down
GDP as of January 22, 2026
GDPNow55.4→ Flat
Unemployment as of January 9, 2026
Unemployment64.4%↑ Up
Inflation as of January 22, 2025
Core PCE72.80%↑ Up
Containerized Freight Index as of December 10, 2025
TSI8136.5→ Flat