TRA Macro Tracking Index

Current Outlook

New risks emerge with the strike on Iran. Too early to tell how this will play out, but in the meantime, the dollar and yields rose modestly overnight, as did energy prices. This development is likely to do little in the short-term to impact the potential for rising core prices from current tariff policies, but it is likely to drive increases in headline inflation, which includes the price of energy.

We will continue to watch for updates, and see how this impacts U.S. fiscal and potential monetary policies. Stay tuned!

Variable + DateValueDirection
Macro Indicators as of June 13, 2025
10 Year Yields14.43↑ Up
U.S. Dollar Index298.07↑ Up
Consumer Confidence as of June 3, 2025
MSCI352.2→ Flat
Conference Board498↑ Up
GDP as of June 9, 2025
GDPNow53.8→ Flat
Unemployment as of June 6, 2025
Unemployment64.20%→ Flat
Inflation as of May 30, 2025
Core PCE72.50%→ Flat
Containerized Freight Index as of April 30, 2025
TSI8136.3↓ Down