TRA Macro Tracking Index

Current Outlook

It is proving to be a very wild week for bonds, closing out about 20 bps lower than the more than two decade highs just a few days ago. Yields and the dollar are both down from the start of the week, but the narrative is changing, with the growth engine of the economy under pressure. This may not prove to be the most promising sign for markets, especially as PPI hit very hard in the month of September, indicating we appear far from done with inflation's tight grasp.

Have a great weekend!

Variable + DateValueDirection
Macro Indicators as of October 16, 2026
10 Year Yields15.094↑ Up
U.S. Dollar Index2101.685↓ Down
Consumer Confidence as of October 9, 2026
MSCI346.3↓ Down
Conference Board481.9↓ Down
GDP as of October 15, 2026
GDPNow53.6→ Flat
Unemployment as of October 2, 2026
Unemployment64.2%↑ Up
Inflation as of September 30, 2026
Core PCE73.3%→ Flat
Containerized Freight Index as of October 1, 2026
TSI8135.7↑ Up