TRA Macro Tracking Index

Current Outlook

Equities recovered today, which interestingly had little to no impact on the credit markets. Yields remained stable at albeit lower levels than we've seen in the last week, and the dollar fell nominally. Consumer sentiment remains largely unchanged, but one noteworthy point is that inflation expectations cooled for the next 12-months among consumers from 4% to 3.5%. Still that would place inflation higher than GDP, so the Fed and law makers still have a long way to go to reign in inflation expectations.

Have a great weekend, and when more government data is available, we'll give our thoughts on it here!

Variable + DateValueDirection
Macro Indicators as of February 6, 2026
10 Year Yields14.21→ Flat
U.S. Dollar Index297.676↓ Down
Consumer Confidence as of February 6, 2026
MSCI357.3↑ Up
Conference Board484.5↓ Down
GDP as of February 2, 2026
GDPNow54.2→ Flat
Unemployment as of January 9, 2026
Unemployment64.4%↑ Up
Inflation as of January 22, 2025
Core PCE72.80%↑ Up
Containerized Freight Index as of February 2, 2026
TSI8138.5↑ Up