The Federal Government shut down on October 1, 2025. We will examine the first order effects of the shutdown below for commercial real estate owners and investors. 

The 2025 Federal Government Shutdown: Insights for CRE Owners and Operators

Today’s Insight was inspired by several requests we have received to better understand and explain the impact of increased tariffs on your tenants and portfolios. This article includes six primary sources you can use to benchmark the impact of these changes on the macroeconomy, specific industries, and ultimately your tenants.

Understand and Explain the Impact of Increased Tariffs on Your Tenants

This Insight explores the impact of the new administration’s Executive Orders on Commercial Real Estate. TRA dives into, Big Law, Higher Education, Tariffs and the Industrial Sector, and Treasury Yields. 

Read on for the full article, or download a copy at the bottom of the page. 

New Administration New Risk

This month’s unsolicited report is on Squarespace, Inc.

Squarespace, TRA Dash Report

The removal of the "de minimis" exemption will likely raise prices on historically low-cost products from China. This will impact supply chain services, particularly logistics providers, with potential revenue declines if tariffs persist. While the immediate effect on consumer demand is expected to be minimal, rising tariffs could stress tenants in the logistics sector over time.

The De Minimis Exemption

Read on to learn how you can view contract and grant information from USAID, and anticipate the organization's potential closure and its impact to your rent roll. 

USAID Closure and Tenants Potential Loss of Funding

Albertsons TRA Report

We were curious about the credit of a company like Sirius after it announced it acquired content from podcaster and influencer Alex Cooper, who runs the Call Her Daddy podcast and the Unwell Network. Ms. Cooper stands to earn up to $125 million, according to media reports, if all performance clauses are met on her contract. It appears that Sirius is using Ms. Cooper to draw in new subscribers to reverse attrition in its user base since the pandemic’s onset. We invite you to read the report below for a full picture of Sirius’s credit profile.

Sirius XM, TRA Report

Today, Tenant Risk Assessment (TRA) unveiled a new brand identity and website, designed by Collect NEW YORK.

Tenant Risk Assessment Launches New Website, Brand Identity

Health Systems are are not immune from the same forces impacting much of the broader economy, and are more challenged today than they were five years ago. Inflation and interest rates are a consistent theme across all three examples outlined in the article below, as well as with many other hospital systems across the country. Rising costs of medical supplies cut into margins. So did rising labor costs. Net patient revenue fell for many health systems in the beginning, and while net patient revenue, which is the revenue a hospital collects net of any discounts to payers, has come back for most systems, some continue to struggle under the weight of rising costs.

Medical Office Outlook, Bifurcated Market Could Drive CRE Transaction Volume

The Midtown Manhattan property at 1740 Broadway, made news in May 2024 because the AAA tranche of the commercial mortgage-backed security (CMBS) incurred at 26% haircut following the sale of the building. Media outlets took note of this, and we at TRA have received questions about what happened.

While TRA is not party to this transaction or the tenants involved, after reviewing the events precipitating the haircut, we have pieced together why the credit rating remained AAA despite signs that recovery of the full value was in doubt.

What to Make of Single Asset CMBS Credit Ratings amid Defaults

Payment in kind is a bit euphemistic, in that there really is not much payment, and when there is, it usually isn’t very kind. Since the rapid hike in rates, we at TRA have seen an increase in commercial tenants that come with some additional baggage, something called a Payment in Kind note, also called a PIK note or PIK loan. Before we go too far unpacking this baggage, let’s take a minute to discuss at a high level just what a PIK loan is and why tenants may seek them.

Private Credit and the Rise of PIK Loans 

Generative artificial intelligence (AI) is dominating the headlines, and for good reason. The technology is very exciting and impresses the notion that as a society, we are approaching a pivot point that could be truly transformational. 